Approaching the $80,000 mark, Bitcoin (BTC) shows a contradictory trajectory and creates a menacing “death cross” on the daily price chart. This trading pattern results from Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average (DMA) crossing below its 200-DMA, signalling possible long-term bearish momentum. Death crosses historically have come before major corrections, like the 30% decline in May 2021 and the bear market of 2022. But Bitcoin’s present resilience—up 12% in June alone—defies conventional wisdom and divides observers.
The death cross arrives as Bitcoin gains from increasing institutional demand. Led by BlackRock’s IBIT, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have had 18 straight days of inflows, taking around $4.2 billion in June. Institutional purchasing pressure is counterbalanced by retail investor caution brought on by the technical signal. As altcoins struggle to keep pace, Bitcoin’s dominance rate (BTC.D) has surged to 54%, its highest since April 2021.
Bitcoin Stock Decline
With their respective weekly drops of 6.8% and 8.1%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite suffered worst since the COVID-induced March 2020 collapse. A poisonous cocktail of stagflation concerns drove the sell-off; Q1 GDP was lowered to 1.3%, and core PCE inflation stubbornly held at 2.8%. Leading the decline, investors abandoned overpriced growth companies, such as IT behemoths like NVIDIA (-14%) and Microsoft (-9%).
Bitcoin’s deviation from stocks has been especially pronounced. The 30-day correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has declined to -0.35, its lowest since 2021, subverting the “digital gold” story. While equities flutter, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly seen as a defence against conventional market volatility. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy focused primarily on this concept, buying an extra 9,245 BTC ($780 million) during the downturn.
Macro Impact on Bitcoin
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stoked market worries by implying that rate reduction could wait until 2025 if inflation stays high. Pressing risk assets, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.8%, its highest since November 2023. Rising East concerns and the US-China semiconductor trade war concurrently have driven a rush to safety, with gold skyrocketing to $2,450/oz.
Bitcoin’s response to these macro changes has been subtle. Although Bitcoin rates usually damage zero-yield assets like BTC, institutional adoption and the asset’s scarcity are overcoming conventional challenges. ” ItcoinItcoincoupling from macro,” Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity stated. Its supply and function as a neutral reserve asset attract capital fleeing geopolitical trends.”
Bitcoin Price Volatility
Institutions are grabbing onto the volatility. Bitcoin ETFs now possess 860,000 BTC, BlackRock controlling 3.68 billion. A BTC momentarily sank below 67,000, 420 million in longs. One additional wildcard is bitcoin miners. Ahead of the August halving, miners have cranked up selling to upgrade equipment, dumping 12,000 BTC. In June, there were 960 million. But Marathon Digital’s CEO Fred Thiel argues that post-halving manufacturing costs ( 80,000/BTC) will generate a “hard floor” for prices.
Analysts are closely examining important pricing points. Bitcoin confronts immediate resistance at 72,000. Evasive near above 73,500 could invalidate the death cross and target 80,000 psychological barriers. S pporSupport 66,500 (200-DMA) and $60,000 (April’s swing low). Though volume trends are alarming, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58 indicates upward momentum. Declining retail involvement is shown by daily trading volumes falling 40% since March. Maintaining short-term favourable structure for bulls depends on recovering the 50-DMA ($69,200).
Conclusion
At a turning point, Bitcoin is negotiating the consequences of a “death cross” on the daily chart, a pattern usually indicating bearish trends. Though this technical indication begs questions about a market correction, Bitcoin’s recent resilience, driven by strong institutional demand and divergence from conventional markets, offers hope for ongoing expansion. Major institutional players like BlackRock’s support and Bitcoin’s rising market share show its promise as a counterpoint to general economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s unique qualities, notably its fixed supply and distributed character, are drawing institutional money increasingly as macroeconomic elements like inflation and growing rates continue to strain risk assets. Notwithstanding the difficulties, observers remain split; imminent levels of resistance and support ahead will decide if the “death cross” is a temporary blip or a warning sign for a more severe downturn. The course of Bitcoin will be significantly shaped in the next few weeks.
